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Another snow: Flakes expected to begin falling Friday night

by Hawes Spencer
published 6:02pm Wednesday Jan 27, 2010
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news-snowprediction1The red zone has a 70% probability of at least four inches, while green signifies a 40% probability, and blue just 10%.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

Just when most of the last brownish-white piles from the pre-Christmas “snowpocalypse” have disappeared, a new snow storm is rearing its head. This time, however, according to the National Weather Service, the heaviest band of snowfall won’t be quite as widespread; but there are some double-digit depth estimates out there.

According to a Service map, the heaviest band of snow is currently expected in an east-west swath roughly tracking the Virginia-North Carolina border. That’s not to say that Charlottesville won’t get snow. It will. But how much is still unknown at this time.

“A winter storm with a potential for significant snowfall.” says the Service. “There is some uncertainty regarding the track and timing of this storm, so please monitor the latest forecasts.”

Albemarle County spokesperson Lee Catlin is urging everyone to stock up on their necessities now, presumably because of the mammoth traffic jams that accompanied the start and end of the last storm which caught many sectors of the populace— as well as many road-clearing crews— less than fully able to deal with the nearly two feet of snow.

6:58am Thursday update: Though the storm’s biggest punch remains on track to fall south of here, the Service just reiterated its “hazardous weather outlook.”

11:59am Thursday update: The track appears to have shifted just a bit to the south.

5:22pm Thursday update: The NWS now has our area on “Winter Storm Watch” with a forecast of “five or more inches.” This time, though, instead of arriving at Friday’s rush hour, the snow gods have graciously agreed to launch around midnight.

5:29pm Thursday update: And the nifty over-4-inch map has been revised in our direction!

6:17am Friday update: Latest estimate is 4-6″ from the NWS office in northern Virginia, but the NWS station in Blackburg— although we’re just outside its map range— appears to have us in a band expected to receive 8-10″.

8:58am Friday update: Most schools closed in  Tennessee as storm creeps eastward.

2:44pm Friday update: “I’m seeing basically the same thing you’re seeing out your window,” says Blacksburg-based National Weather Service Meteorologist Dennis Sleighter. “High cloud cover moving into the area that’s in advance of the new system.” Sleighter says he hasn’t gotten any reports of major snowfall arriving in Virginia yet, but his weather station is predicting over a foot for certain areas along the Virginia-North Carolina border. The latest official estimate for Charlottesville remains just 3-5 inches.

3:06pm Friday update: Latest NWS forecast calls for half an inch tonight, 2-4″ Saturday, one more inch Sunday, and then sunny skies Sunday. (What if this isn’t Snowpocalype II, after all?)

52 comments

  • Nancy January 27th, 2010 | 6:09 pm

    Thanks for the warning heading to the store now. Hope if we do get snow there is ample supply of shovels for sale, UVA kids on my block were using pots and pans last time.

  • mike j January 27th, 2010 | 7:30 pm

    Let it Snow!

  • Outskirts Guy January 27th, 2010 | 8:21 pm

    Yesus Krist. When will a flake of snow stop being the main news story around here? Is the south really that pathetic? It was sunny and 60 two days ago and school was canceled. I guess the south is pathetic.

    Now excuse me while I go rabid with the hordes currently trying to buy some bread and milk…since who could possibly live without those two things which can spoil very quickly.

  • Nancy January 27th, 2010 | 8:39 pm

    I actually know people who waited until Friday evening, of the last storm, and couldn’t stomach the lines at the grocery store, so went home -and their pantry’s were bare, for days; not such a bad idea to plan ahead.

  • boo! January 27th, 2010 | 8:59 pm

    It’s “pantries,” not “pantry’s.”

  • boo! January 27th, 2010 | 9:00 pm

    (Sorry, stuff like that just bugs me.)

  • frosty January 27th, 2010 | 9:00 pm

    OoooooooHhhhhhh lordy let me fill up the car with gas at $65.00 a tank and run to the grocery store and buy a couple hundred dollars worth of groceries because God knows i won’t be able to get out until atleast noon the next day. WHY do people fill up their gas tanks? Ever noticed that? I overheard people talking this morning saying “yep, we gona git 12 inches plus ! ” This even before the news channels had made an attempt to estimate the snowfall.Just goes to show that the South is always up for a bit of gossip and story telling. AIN’T IT GREAT !!!!!

  • Gasbag Self Ordained Expert January 27th, 2010 | 9:06 pm

    quote: “WHY do people fill up their gas tanks? Ever noticed that?”

    If your power goes out, and you have no backup source of heat that doesn’t require electricity…. you can sit in your car with the heater running for a very long time. It has meant the difference between life and death for many people in the past.

  • Are You Serious January 27th, 2010 | 9:15 pm

    I heard up to twelve feet of snow starting yesterday and lasting through the next 3 weeks, non-stop. Hoard, hoard, hoard. Absolutely ridiculous!!! If Charlottesville gets half an inch the place turns into a friggin train wreck. People in this town can’t drive on a dry sunny day much less add a little moisture and a flashing light……..

  • Nancy January 27th, 2010 | 9:31 pm

    boo!–I appreciate the correction, I’ve been known to give a few corrections myself

  • ontheroad January 27th, 2010 | 9:34 pm

    I agree that a little snow really slows this town down. I work alot in WVA and the northeast. Yes, they are well equipped to handle winter much better but sure notice alot of people who condemn our southern habits for some reason live here now!

  • oh lord January 27th, 2010 | 9:40 pm

    lets see how the city does this time…..

  • boo! January 27th, 2010 | 9:42 pm

    “This even before the news channels had made an attempt to estimate the snowfall.Just goes to show that the South is always up for a bit of gossip and story telling. AIN’T IT GREAT !!!!!”

    Last time we had winter-related gossip and story telling we wound up getting 23″ inches of snow. So, ya know. And I don’t know about you, but the long private road I live off of wasn’t plowed out for 5 days. So good thing we had enough food and supplies on hand because we didn’t go anywhere in a vehicle for almost a week. This time we’re also going to be stocked up on food and water and pet supplies and other necessary supplies, and yup, the full tank of gas.

    You can vie for the position of “#1 snarky bad ass” if you want to, whatever floats your boat, but I choose to be quietly prepared, just in case. To each his own though. But if our vehicles are stranded for another 5 days like before then it’s good to already have everything we need so we can just sit back and chill and not worry about anything, patiently riding things out. Just like we did the last time.

  • C'VILLE THIS IS THE 21ST CENTURY January 27th, 2010 | 9:49 pm

    Despite the fact that I have only been in Charlottesville for 6 months I must say that Charlottesville, local communities and VDOT for “state” road projects failed miserably… during the last snow fall (I grew up up north and it aint no big thing…just a way out for folks to make excuses as to why they failed) I live in N abemarle county in a development that is managed by real properties…..that was stranded for 3 days during the last snow fall. This is the worst management company I have ever seen and I can only expect that I will be “locked” into another 3 days of hell sorry…5 days until they get off their buts and do something.

  • Southern Sweetheart January 27th, 2010 | 9:53 pm

    I agree ontheroad….the majority of true natives in this area do not like the snow, we are not used to it and it’s disruptive…and I was raised that if you don’t have anything nice to say you should keep your mouth shut and say nothing! So to all of you that had nasty comments to say about us Southern people…. If you do not like it here in our beautiful South, please….go back to where you came from. No one is begging you to stay!

  • Nancy January 27th, 2010 | 9:57 pm

    If you live in a rural, or given the last storm, not so rural area; you might want to consider investing in one of these gizmos –featured in a recent Hook slideshow– which freed some very grateful individuals. I bought a pair, and now feel prepared, no matter how much snow falls. The company is based in Maine and is run by one of the friendliest, most helpful small business owners I’ve ever encountered.

    http://www.tractionaids.com/

  • C'VILLE THIS IS THE 21ST CENTURY January 27th, 2010 | 9:58 pm

    it aint a south vs north yankee vs confed thing sweetheart…dont get your panties in an uproar….the issue is that the powers that be (regardless if they are right left blue or grey) failed in the ability to support the community..that is the point. Folks can point fingers and double talk all they want but when you try to call for help over a weekend storm and you hear a recording that states ” we have know about the impending storm for the past 10 days…and are planning for it” and they fail…it leaves one to question just how much lip service we are willing to put up with before folks realize that they can make a difference and sway the corporporate opinion.

  • C'VILLE THIS IS THE 21ST CENTURY January 27th, 2010 | 10:02 pm

    I am tired of the double talk……finger pointing and diversion tactics that “political types” use to deviate from the important and honest subject at hand. They try to absolve themselves from any liability which is farther from the truth….they are just to weak to take the impact of their actions.

  • Nancy January 27th, 2010 | 10:15 pm

    And, in case you’ve forgotten the last storm already, maybe these slideshows will joggle your memory–also pictures of the steel get you unstuck devices

    http://readthehook.com/galleries/

  • Ed January 27th, 2010 | 10:21 pm

    I am a loyal son of the south who spent time in Vermont where they really know what they are doing. Watching the plows ride around for 3 days with shovels up is NOT the way to go especially when we’re paying thsoe boys big overtime bucks to do a shoddy job. The county and city failed - badly. To the person stuck in their house for 5 days - really? You don’t know anybody with a 4 x 4 who could come pick you up and get you out to the main road or pay a private contractor to plow your drive? Try a little self-sufficiency - I shuttled people from my neighborhood to the nearest store and then we all worked together to dig them out so they could go about their way in 36 hours. Then of course the plow came by and wrecked all our work. Morons.

  • Piss N'Moan Some More January 27th, 2010 | 11:11 pm

    The South is not pathetic, the little babies that sit on computers and find outlets like this to put others down because their are to tender to deal with a line at the grocery store are “Pathetic”. You were probably one of the “smart guys” crashing their cars into everything begging for help after the storm because you didn’t have enough common sense to stock up early and keep your butt at home where you could sit and complain about the south where sadly you happen to live. Look back the last time people thought it won’t be that bad, we got nearly 2 feet of snow and I ended up stuck until a neighbor farmer had plow my driveway before I could get my 4×4 out. People have a natural survival mode and when they hear of coming hardships they jump to do what they feel is needed. And if the South vs the North vs etc. is not the point, why did you start the topic off about it? Maybe you should let your brain catch up with your mouth instead of trying to look as if you are the smartest little thing around.

  • Amen! January 27th, 2010 | 11:37 pm

    It should not be about the fact that we are in the south, but if you don’t like it here then leave! I was born and raised here and it was wonderful! Now there are way too many people here who don’t care about our little town. There are houses, apartments etc stuck everywhere you look, buildings in our downtown HISTIORC area that don’t fit in and people fussin’ about being here. I just don’t get it. You should be happy the biggest thing to talk about is the weather! Now we have a murder on our hands to talk about, I HOPE this does NOT make you happy:(

  • Amen! January 27th, 2010 | 11:39 pm

    HISTORIC…Sorry BOO!

  • CC January 27th, 2010 | 11:41 pm

    A good reason for filling the tank when snow is on the ground is to add weight to the rear of a rear wheel drive car. At about 6 lb to the gallon, it’s easy to have an extra 60-90 pounds of weight in the rear, which can make a noticeable difference in some situations. Sand bags in the trunk are another good source of extra weight as well as something that might be useful if you are stuck and need extra traction. It’s helped me get myself unstuck a few times.

  • BlueGold January 27th, 2010 | 11:59 pm

    They really do lots of whinning down here in VA. I can’t hardly believe how they act over a little snow. It’s freakin stupid!

  • Nancy January 28th, 2010 | 6:34 am

    I’ve read people do better when they have something to worry about, that’s not themselves ,and the weather is fairly innocuous on the worry scale. So, I just checked the latest forecast at the link above (weather underground) and the latest forecast states: no snow on Friday, but 90% chance on Saturday. But, if you check weather.com they are predicting 30% chance of pm snow showers and 70% chance on Saturday. Stay tuned

  • Mike January 28th, 2010 | 6:51 am

    * Filling the car with gas is a great idea because gas pumps run on electricity. If electricity goes out to the gas stations, then your walking.

    * I simply don’t think the town/city has the resources to deal with a big snowstorm like they do in, say, Vermont. I mean really, how often does it snow more then a inch or two in Central VA? Give the city a break, they did the best they could with what they had. I’m sure they will be much better this time.

    *A lot of people belly aching in their comments here. If your not a part of the solution, don’t be a part of the problem. Keep your negative attitude to yourself. Yeesh!

  • hawes January 28th, 2010 | 7:00 am

    It’s still on track, folks!–hawes spencer

  • Kevin Cox January 28th, 2010 | 7:26 am

    Mike,
    I agree that comparisons with cities that routinely have to deal with much more snow than Charlottesville gets are irrelevant. But the city does face the possibility of large snowstorms and they can be prepared with equipment, training and strategies.

    How do you think the city will do a better job this time if they did the best they could last time?

    I would like to hear people say, “Wow that was a lot of snow but didn’t the City and the community do a great job dealing with it!” It is possible. Hopefully some good will come out of the problems of the last snowstorm and we will see a big improvement. Maybe if we’re really lucky the snow will track even further to the south and we won’t have any snow to deal with!

    Cordially,
    Kevin Cox
    Cordially,
    Kevin Cox

  • Dakota January 28th, 2010 | 7:42 am

    Nancy

    Thanks for the warning heading to the store now. Hope if we do get snow there is ample supply of shovels for sale, UVA kids on my block were using pots and pans last time.

    You have to love the determination of the college kid’s …pot and pans lol .

    I remember my first night away at college , the roomies and I had a jar of popcorn and no pots or pans to pop it in . We poured a couple cups in the bottom of the microwave and popped away , opened the door and walla a microwave full of fun lol.

    Dakota

  • Bud Fan January 28th, 2010 | 8:48 am

    I hope it snows a ton! This area has so many awesome hills for sledding. Don’t stay indoors. Bring the kids outside! My 7 year old loves it.

  • just me January 28th, 2010 | 9:02 am

    Well, here are my 2 cents worth. I grew up in the NRV when the weather patterns were a little different. We could expect to have several 12 inch snowfalls each year and were prepared for them. I moved to Fluvanna in 1991 and for the most part there have only been a few significant snowfalls.
    How do the county/city governments justify massive stockpiles of snow removal equipment and supplies for the infrequent snowfalls that occur here? Everyone of us complains about how they have cut this program or that program because there isn’t any money. Which program should be cut so we can buy more plows to sit around and get rusty waiting for the year that we might need them?
    As for gas and groceries…. you’d better believe that I’ll be sure to have both. Last snow storm, it was 3 days before I could get home, and then another 4 before I could get my car home. My husband and my son were stuck in our house. I almost ran out of gas trying every road around to see if I could find one where I could get through to get home. After 4 hours, I ended up at a friends. Not everyone around here has the convenience of living where the streets are quickly cleaned or they are within walking distance of a store. My choice, I know that, so I choose to be prepared.
    As for the whole out of snow shovel thing….didn’t everyone get one in Dec. or do people throw them out when they are finished? Call me crazy, but I still have the shovel from the blizzard of ‘96!

  • hawes January 28th, 2010 | 12:00 pm

    Hey, folks, the track shifted just a bit to the south. We’re still looking at snow, but perhaps less than previously predicted.–hawes spencer

  • Gasbag Self Ordained Expert January 28th, 2010 | 12:29 pm

    I would hope we can still squeeze a nice 6″ to 8″ accumulation out of this system. Our kids just don’t get to enjoy snow as often as we did when we were youngsters! :)

  • MTT January 28th, 2010 | 1:24 pm

    Anyone else think who follows the blogs around C-Ville that “Gasbag Self Ordained Expert” sounds exactly like the person that used to post as “Sick of the Local Rambos”? I sure as hell do. Let it snow!

  • ontheroad January 28th, 2010 | 1:26 pm

    Intresting you bring that up. I always thought there was more snow way back when but figured it was selective memory. Then after the last snowfall “The Hook” ran 10 greatest snowfalls and yes, a lot where from the 60’s. I can remember my bus driver, Duck, installing chains on old bus 80 and off we went. Good Times!

  • CC January 28th, 2010 | 1:30 pm

    amazing detective work there MTT, even if it’s several months late

  • Gasbag Self Ordained Expert January 28th, 2010 | 4:10 pm

    I am rolling in the floor laughing. MTT, we’ll send you important updates by e-mail from now on! :)

  • Mike Wiszowski January 28th, 2010 | 4:35 pm

    I’m with you Sick, give us as much snow as that storm has in it! i grew up in Los Angeles so I have a lot of catching up to do as far as snowy memories

  • hawes January 28th, 2010 | 5:24 pm

    Just updated: “5 or more inches.”–hawes spencer

  • Hoolarious January 28th, 2010 | 5:30 pm

    come on, snow! come on!

  • WestBerkeleyFlats January 28th, 2010 | 6:40 pm

    Hawes is right - the map is nifty.

  • Dakota January 28th, 2010 | 7:07 pm

    The map is nifty and I too am wishing for some snow , 8″ to 10″ makes for much fun during the weekend .

    I am a BIG kid :)

    Dakota

  • Buffalo girl January 28th, 2010 | 8:03 pm

    Does the map change as the prediction changes ?

  • [...] delays sidewalk enforcementSnap: All we want for Christmas…Snap: Snow began at 3:55 downtownAnother snow: Flakes expected to begin falling Friday night $(document).ready(function(){ $.get(”/blog/index.php/most-read-dedicated/”, function(data){ [...]

  • hawes January 29th, 2010 | 6:22 am

    Not only does the map change, but different NWS offices (there are 3 in VA) give different depth estimates for Charlottesville: 4-6″ from the NWS office in northern Virginia and 8-10″ from Blackburg’s office.–hawes spencer

  • Outskirts Guy January 29th, 2010 | 8:19 am

    I heard we might get 3 inches on Feb 25th. Please be sure you all get out there and start preparing now. Buy food, milk, beer, emergency kits, spare cars, water, shovels, and salt.

  • Buffalo girl January 29th, 2010 | 8:24 am

    Sounds like a stimulus plan.

  • Nancy January 29th, 2010 | 9:32 am

    Do I have to leave work early today –when is the storm due to hit ?

  • M January 29th, 2010 | 1:48 pm

    We now have a “winter weather advisory,” instead of a winter storm watch. It’s forecasting 3-5 inches. And Nancy, that is not supposed to start until very early tomorrow morning.

  • harry January 29th, 2010 | 4:53 pm

    I would like to have 3-5 inches………………..

  • boo! January 29th, 2010 | 4:58 pm

    4-6″, 6-8″, 4-10″, what’s the difference? Does it really matter? Unless it’s 2 feet, like before, then it’s not a big deal. Charlottesville saw how bad it can get. Anything else is like a walk in the park. “ONLY 7 inches? Dah! Who cares.” Nothing tops the 2 footer.

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